Financial Preview 01/04/2015: UK General Election 2015, Thursday 7th May 2015

As the election campaign ‘officially’ began with the dissolution of Parliament, this week has slowly seen business become the main talking point.

First though, that non-debate last week. A wonky format and distinct bias against Miliband from Kay Burley aside, it proved to be an odd choice for Cameron. Despite doing well with questions from the audience, in perfect robo-politician mode, the Prime Minister seemed flustered when being grilled by Paxman, who had carte blanche to be as parodically Paxman-like as he wished. It likely would have made more sense for Cameron to debate Miliband head on, where the lines of discussion would have been more clearly delineated and therefore easier to prepare for, alongside the fact that neither leader would have been as aggressive an opponent as Paxman, who did not have to worry about alienating potential voters.



Miliband, for what it’s worth, came across closer to an actual, passionate, human than Cameron did, despite some surliness marring his, overall strong, discussion with Paxman. And even if the non-debate didn’t create a massive up-swell in Labour support, with most polls suggesting Cameron ‘won’ the night, the confidence it will have given Miliband just might. It will be interesting to see whether either of the two potential leaders changes tack for Thursday’s 7-way mega-debate. A YouGov poll has people predicting Cameron will perform best; given that there appears to be a gradual reassessment of Miliband at the moment, the Tory leader may find it hard not to disappoint these lofty expectations.

Back to campaigning and the week saw Labour launch their business manifesto, focusing on one of Cameron’s wobbles in the Paxman face-off. Labour has latched onto the fact the Prime Minister stated he couldn’t live on a zero-hour contract, and Miliband has been vociferous when talking about the ways Labour would curb these working conditions. However Labour’s business hopes, something that has been an issue throughout the election run-in, were dealt another blow as 100 business leaders signed a letter to The Telegraph stating that ‘Labour threatens Britain’s recovery’.



Yet the Tories also failed to come out unscathed this Wednesday, as the Centre for Macroeconomics has claimed the austerity conditions of this Tory government have had a negative effect on UK economic activity. What is important to note about these divergent statements surrounding Labour and the Tories is that the boffs at the CoM have a much smaller, nigh on non-existent, horse in the election race when compared to the pound-stuffed stallion of those 100 business leaders.

The polls, as ever, continue to add to the confusion rather than elucidate the situation, with Labour and Conservatives playing leap frog at the top of these surveys. This caused a big increase in the chances of no overall majority, which grew from a binary spread of 72-80 to 80-85, on a zero or 100 make up. In terms of Spreadex’s General Election seats spread, the Conservatives are marginally down at 281-286 but remaining the favourite with our clients, whilst Labour crept up to 272-277 with a marginal increase in buys going their way. UKIP and Lib Dems, at 4.5-6.5 and 24-27 respectively, continue to be sold with the minor parties fading as the spotlight increasingly focuses on Labour and the Conservatives.