Financial Preview: UK General Election 2015, Thursday 7th May 2015

With less than 100 days to the UK general election on May 7th, Spreadex is offering a wide selection of fixed-odds and spread betting options ahead of the big decision.

This is set to be the tightest election race in recent memory, and as each party begins their campaign in earnest, there has been a plethora of factors complicating the electoral picture.

One of the biggest talking points of recent weeks has been the disagreements surrounding the TV debates. Whilst last election the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats took to the podium, in a reflection of the fractured political landscape, certain quarters are calling for the inclusion of all the (now) major parties. The issues grew from calls for UKIP to take part in the debates, leading to the argument from the Green Party, alongside the SNP and Wales’ Plaid Cymru, that they should be included as well. This has then caused a furore among minor parties like Respect and DUP as well as those in Northern Ireland over their potential exclusion. In the midst of this is David Cameron refusing to participate if the Greens are not included, with Labour accusing the Tory leader of running away from the fight.

However, this TV debate debacle is in effect playing into Cameron’s hands. The inclusion of the Greens would not only give a platform to the party most likely to steal votes from Labour, but it also dilutes the potent Farage brand by giving him less screen time to further raid the Tory’s voter baseline. In the eventuality that all these parties do take part there could be anything between 5 to 11 leaders on stage, and Cameron could easily paint a picture of the chaotic alternative to Tory ‘stability’ that the Conservatives are trying to use as their trump card in this election. Already there have been plenty of Spreadex clients buying Tory seats at a spread of 279-285 as their message strikes a chord with voters.



If Cameron is trying to engineer the TV debates to minimize the impact of UKIP, it is for good reason. Farage’s party has put the cat among the pigeons ahead of this election, and has been the main disruptive force behind Labour and the Tories’ scrambled campaigns. Focus has been shifted onto immigration, a tricky issue that requires nuance and delicacy to handle, something rhetoric heavy election campaigns aren’t exactly known for. Worryingly for the main two parties, it appears at the moment that nothing can derail this UKIP train; despite unpleasant scandal after unpleasant scandal, the party comes out unscathed largely because support is based around the ‘charisma’ of Nigel Farage rather nameable political figures or even policies. All too often painted as a clown atop a clownish party, the main parties need to take the threat of Farage and UKIP seriously if they are to combat the right-wing upstarts. There has already been a big movement towards buying UKIP seats, at a spread of 6.5-8.5, as their campaign shows no signs of slowing down.

If UKIP is largely a threat to the Tories, Labour hasn’t been immune to the Farage-virus. Working class voters are being attracted to UKIP as worries over the perceived links between immigration, benefits and unemployment are poorly addressed by Miliband and co. But unlike the Tories, Labour is also facing the increased popularity of both the Green Party, and the SNP. With the Greens surging to near 11% in recent polls, and surveys suggesting that the SNP could take around 30 seats off of them in Scotland, Labour are in danger of suffering a more extreme version of the voter-switch that occurred in the 2010, when the party lost key ballots to the Lib Dems. Already here at Spreadex we have seen a flurry of SNP seats purchases, with their spread increasing from 29-32 to 34-37.



Labour’s attempts to make the NHS the key focus of the election have backfired somewhat, and despite their salient points about the Tory attitudes to the health service, have been accused of using it as a political football. Miliband’s attacks on Cameron about the NHS barely made a dent on the Prime Minister’s approval ratings, and with the rise of UKIP highlighting that immigration, alongside economy, will decide this election, Labour may need a change of tact. The NHS misfire alongside public spats with key UK business leaders have caused Spreadex clients to sell Labour General Election seats at a spread of 279-285.

There is a rather big absence at the centre of the conversations surrounding this election, and that is Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. After building up so much support ahead of the 2010 election, the Lib Dems have gone on to play out the perils of joining a coalition. With many believing that Clegg and his peers have betrayed their pre-election promises for a grab at power, the party are completely lacking any momentum going into May. If they hadn’t joined the coalition there is a chance the party would be in a position to build on the swell of support they gained in 2010, and through this the Lib Dems may be a lesson to other parties wanting to form a coalition.

Yet with enough time for things to change in the ever-volatile world of modern politics, check back here at Spreadex for regular election updates as the campaign continues.