Financial Trading Blog

Stock of the day 05/11/2015 – Barratt Developments PLC




Can the company nip its nascent decline in the bud with its interim statement next Wednesday?

Like the rest of its house-building peers, Barratt Developments (the largest company in the sector) has seen moments of explosive growth combined with sustained periods of upwards advancement to hit near 8-year highs. Starting the year at £4.68, by the start of July the stock had climbed to £6.40, though since then Barratt has struggled to match the kind of gains it made in the first half of the year.

Barratt Developments Plc Chart November 2015
(Source: IT-Finance.com 05/11/2015)

However, it deftly managed the market chaos of August, with a brief dip below £6 quickly overcome a few days later. More importantly, its start of September full year results allowed it to maintain its post-£6.40 levels. Those results contained a 19% increase in revenue to £3.8 billion alongside a huge jump in pre-tax profits from £391 million to £566 million year-on-year. That growth was prompted by the fact that Barratt completed its largest number of homes since the crisis in 2008, creating a nice bit of symmetry as its full figures helped send the company to a fresh peak of £6.73, its highest price since 2007.

After falling away from that high Barratt spent most of October trading in the £6.40 to £6.50 bracket that was its home for most of the third quarter (barring that aforementioned August dip). However, in the past week the stock has begun to fall; a 3% tumble on the 29th October took it to £6.17, before an update from Liberum Capital on the 3rd November helped send it to a current trading price of £5.78 (IT-Finance.com, 05/11/2015), on the way hitting a 6 and a half month low of £5.68.

That Liberum note labelled the ‘largest housebuilders’ valuations’ as ‘too optimistic’, especially with the house price inflation that has been such a boon to the sector expected to come under pressure from a ‘more vigilant regulator’. Yet so long as there is such an imbalance between home supply and demand signs of a continued strong performance in revenue and actual house-building could attract those investors that had abandoned Barratt back to the stock following its interim statement.

Barratt Developments has a consensus rating of ‘Hold’ with an average target price of £5.90.


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