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Not long after Rafael Nadal secured his 14^th Roland Garros trophy and record-extending 22^nd Grand Slam title on the French clay, the third major of the tennis calendar is quickly almost upon us at the illustrious grass courts of SW19 at Wimbledon. What are the current betting odds of him winning his third Wimbledon title?

Nadal has signalled his intention to participate for the first time in three years, but arch-rival Novak Djokovic will begin as the favourite to defend his title, secure yet another Wimbledon trophy, and in the process close the gap back to one Grand Slam between himself and the Spaniard – while himself also moving one clear of Roger Federer. The Swiss will definitely not be taking part this year but does still plan to return later this season.

In terms of the main candidates for success over the fortnight, there are certainly a group of players who are eager to either take the next step in their careers, make a mark, or go past the point of previous achievements. In this feature, Spreadex Sports look at some of the key favourites for the trophy, as well as potential dangermen/dark horses!

We take a look at the top favourites for the Tournament Winner Outright fixed odds market - which you can see here, while also not forgetting about our various spread betting markets for tennis! You can view those here, and you can visit our learning materials for tennis spread betting here.

TOURNAMENT WINNER (OUTRIGHT)

Djokovic to win a fourth consecutive Wimbledon?

Novak Djokovic 4/5, Spreads Index 37-40

As mentioned, Djokovic begins as the outright favourite to win the trophy once again. The Serb has already been champion at SW19 on six previous occasions and will be highly-motivated to make it seven – and win his first Grand Slam title since the last edition of Wimbledon – after losing the 2021 US Open final, missing the 2022 Australian Open altogether, and falling in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros to Nadal.

Not much needs to be said in terms of the reigning champion’s pedigree at this tournament, having won the last 3 editions, and it will take an inspired effort from any other player to take his crown. However, at such short odds and with a lack of grass-court practice leading up to the tournament, punters may find more wisdom and value in backing a new champion to reign at SW19 in 2022.

Berrettini to follow up Stuttgart and Queen’s success with first Grand Slam title?

Matteo Berrettini 6/1, Spreads Index 18-21

The 6’5 Italian, who reached the Wimbledon final last year and lost to Djokovic, has definitely established himself as one of the very finest grass-court performers in tennis today. After suffering an injury earlier this year (March), he returned to the sport only this month and has won back-to-back titles on grass at Stuttgart and Queen’s, joining an illustrious list of greats to have reached 4 or more consecutive grass court finals, alongside Roger Federer, Pete Sampras, and Novak Djokovic – all players with at least 5 Wimbledon titles each.

In fact, Berrettini has gone an incredible 19/1 in his last 20 matches on grass, so possesses the pedigree that few others on the tour can currently match. The main question mark will likely be around his fitness and whether his body will be able to hold up for seven consecutive best-of-5-set matches. Can Berrettini go one step further than last year and win his first Grand Slam? At 6/1 – he may be a decent value punt to do just that.

What are the current Wimbledon odds for Nadal on his return to SW19?

Rafael Nadal 7/1, Spreads Index 15-18

After missing this tournament several times due to injury (including the last 3 editions),  two-time winner Nadal has signalled his intention to participate and aim for his 3^rd title – 12 years after his last one here. This will also be the Spaniard’s attempt at continuing a potential calendar Grand Slam, after already securing the Australian Open and Roland Garros. With only injuries seeming to slow down Nadal at points this season, it remains to be seen if he will stay fit enough for a meaningful fortnight on the grass.

Undoubtedly, at full-fitness, Nadal is still one of the finest grass court players ever – two trophies here attest to that fact. His career stats on grass are show an extremely solid 78% Total Win rate (71-20), only marginally behind his hard-court record of 78.4% (509-40), so his pedigree on this surface is often overlooked. And, of course, the motivation of continuing the quest for a calendar Grand Slam may well provide some fuel to the 36-year-old’s fire. However, with his fitness still under some doubt and lacking significant recent practice on the surface, 7/1 odds look about right for the legendary Mallorcan to grab a 23^rd Grand Slam.

What are the odds on Alcaraz winning his first Slam at Wimbledon?

Carlos Alcaraz 9/1, Spreads Index 9-12

One of the most exciting additions to the ATP Tour in many a year, 19-year old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz has been a revelation in 2022. Having secured 2 Masters titles and 2 ATP 500 titles, the precocious talent has bulldozed his way into the top 10 of the men’s rankings. Perhaps not since Nadal has there been a young player with this much justified hype, and his explosive and exciting playing style has gained him acclaim and a myriad of new fans.

Many expected Alcaraz to be a key contender for the Roland Garros title, but this ultimately proved too much too soon, and he was eliminated by Alexander Zverev in somewhat of a surprise result. For all of Alcaraz’s talent, he is still a young player with major deficiencies in experience at the top level – particularly at Grand Slams – and it will be a big challenge for him to come through seven best-of-5-set matches to win the trophy here.

With a lack of practice and experience on grass courts also, conventional wisdom may suggest that Alcaraz will find it extremely difficult to produce a title winning run on this occasion, but he can certainly go deep in the draw and perhaps post his best Grand Slam result yet. However, at 9/1 and with players more proven on grass available at better odds, punters may have to think twice about the value in backing the young man from Murcia.

Is Poland’s Hurkacz a real dark horse at Wimbledon?

Hubert Hurkacz Odds - 12/1, Spreads Index 12-15

The big-serving Pole has fast become one of the more popular players on tour but has also become a formidable player in his own right, especially on fast surfaces. Having caused a shock at Wimbledon last year by knocking out Roger Federer – including a famous 6-0 ‘bagel’ set against the legendary Swiss – Hurkacz has been gradually gaining momentum with big results against big players, catapulting himself to the world’s top 10.

Hurkacz will also be coming into the tournament off the back off claiming his first grass court title at the ATP 500 event in Halle, Germany, demolishing the world number one Daniil Medvedev in straight sets. This championship run also included victories over the defending champion Ugo Humbert, fellow up-and-comer Felix Auger-Aliassime, and the dangerous Nick Kyrgios. As such, Hurkacz will be brimming with confidence ahead of this attempt at a maiden Grand Slam title.

His outright price has dropped significantly over the last week and now stands at 12/1 – a potentially worthy punt for one of the main dark horses. 

FAA to make a deep run at SW19?

Felix Auger-Aliassime 12/1

The Canadian youngster has seemingly been around for ages having made his initial prominence felt as a 15-year-old prodigy, and he has steadily been improving his results and performances on the ATP tour. Having reached the quarter-finals last time at Wimbledon, he then went a step further by making the last-4 at the US Open, and then followed those results up with another quarter-final in Melbourne at the Australian Open, while a 4^th round exit at Roland Garros was admirable considering he only lost to eventual champion Nadal – and gave the ‘King of Clay’ plenty of trouble in that particular encounter.

In the current grass court season, Auger-Aliassime has posted a semi-final and quarter-final appearance at Hertogenbosch and Halle, and while he will have been highly disappointed to not go further, he actually lost to the eventual champions of both those events in Tim van Rijthoven and Hubert Hurkacz, respectively.

The Canadian certainly has the weapons to be dangerous on the grass, and the valuable experience he gains with every passing tournament will certainly put him in good stead to potentially make his biggest impact on a Grand Slam yet. With a favourable draw and performing at the best of his abilities, Aliassime could be another outside shot at 12/1 for punters looking to back outside the ‘usual suspects’.

Cilic to have another successful campaign at Wimbledon?

Marin Cilic 16/1, Spreads Index 8-10

A former Wimbledon finalist in 2017, the big Croatian has had somewhat of a renaissance this year, overcoming a few years of mediocre results on all surfaces to find a level of consistency, and coupling this once again with some excellent (and perhaps surprising) performances. On what has been historically his weakest surface, Cilic reached the last 4 at Roland Garros for the first time and will be looking to take that big-match momentum into Wimbledon.

However, Cilic will have probably been disappointed with his performance in the Wimbledon warm-up tournament at the Queen’s Club, where he has been a former champion, as he was dumped out by the eventual losing finalist Filip Krajinovic of Serbia. Losing to a player who outperformed his usual levels will probably be of less concern than the actual manner of the defeat, and it remains to be seen whether this was a temporary blip or something more significant. In any case, there were signs of encouragement, and at 16/1 Cilic might be a worthwhile dark-horse punt.

Kyrgios a dark horse worth backing?

Nick Kyrgios 16/1, Spreads Index 8-10

The mercurial Aussie has serially underperformed in his career thus far, with a lack of consistency hindering him almost as much as his struggles with the mental side of the game, with various outbursts being present in almost every match he plays. However, on his day he is one of the very finest players on grass courts, with his potent serve and powerful groundstrokes often blowing his opponents off the court. He has already beaten some of the best players in the world on this surface, and of course had a famous victory over Rafael Nadal as a 19-year-old in 2014.

Now 27, Kyrgios has been showing some positive signs of added maturity this year and started the grass court season by reaching two semi-finals, losing to Andy Murray in controversial circumstances in Stuttgart, and then losing to eventual champion Hubert Hurkacz in the Halle semi-finals in a deciding set tie-break. Another 16/1 dark-horse, Kyrgios may be the punt for those who believe he can keep his highest level for 7 consecutive matches.

What are Andy Murray's Wimbledon odds and do any long-shot dark horses stand out?

For punters looking for a more left-field choice to back, there are several dark horses at long odds which have the potential to cause some shocks in the tournament. Among them, it could be argued, is two-time champion Andy Murray, who is currently at 50/1 on the fixed odds outright winner market, and at 3.5-5.5 on the spreads index. With Murray reaching his first grass final in several years at Stuttgart recently and only losing to Berrettini - could the Scot produce a famous fairytale run?

Some other players to watch out for include the serve-and-volleying American Maxime Cressy (150/1, 1-2), American former semi-finalists John Isner (200/1, 1-2) and Sam Querrey (400/1, 0.1-1), Dutchman Tim van Rijthoven (400/1, 0.5-1.5) who won his maiden ATP title on grass a couple of weeks ago, and the British youngster Jack Draper (100/1, 1-2) who made a splash at Wimbledon 2021 when he pushed Novak Djokovic in a competitive first-set tiebreaker in the opening match on centre court.

SPREADS MARKETS TO LOOK OUT FOR

Besides our fixed odds outright markets, there will be plenty of spread betting action on offer with Spreadex too. We will have a range of tournament markets such as Total Tiebreaks, Total 5 Set Matches, Total Bagel Sets, and much more! We also have spreads specials on offer including Name The Finalists, which is an index-based market for correctly predicting the two players to compete in the final at the end of fortnight.

And, of course, we will have our full range of regular spreads markets for each match including Cross Courts, Match Supremacy, Player Points and more! Don't forget to check out all of the latest prices and markets here.

Read more about tennis spread betting here.