With a tough FA Cup replay looming

Despite being unbeaten in 11 league games Burnley are only 1 point ahead of Hull (and Middlesbrough), but with 1 more game played. Thursday night, then, gives the Tigers a chance to stake their claim for title once more after fluffing their lines slightly in the last few weeks. February was a rather mixed month for the club; kicking off with a loss to Burnley themselves, Hull went on to beat Blackburn and Ipswich on the road only to be held to 0-0 draws by Brighton and Sheffield Wednesday at home.



Amongst all that Hull managed to grind out another, infinitely more impressive, 0-0 draw against Arsenal at the Emirates, something that perhaps complicates Steve Bruce’s decisions ahead of his side’s trip to Birmingham. Hull host Arsenal in the replay next Tuesday, meaning Bruce has to make the choice whether to prioritise the Championship over a potentially distracting cup run or push ahead with both; given the proximity of Boro, Brighton and Derby (all within 1 to 2 points of Hull) it is likely Bruce will pick the former despite having a fully fit squad to choose from. Goalless in the past 4 games Hull’s top scorer Abel Hernandez, on 16 Championship goals with a Super Mega PGM spread of 31-37, will be looking to resume his fine form, whilst Man United loanee Nick Powell, at 17-21, will be hoping to make his first start for the club.

Whilst Hull are aiming for automatic promotion Birmingham are trying to climb back into play-off contention, a win this Thursday potentially leaving them 1 point behind 6th place Sheffield Wednesday. Yet just as February was mixed for the Tigers, it was one of frustrating ambivalence for the Blues. Losses to Sheffield Wednesday and QPR bookended the month, with a goalless draw against Rotherham and a meagre 1-0 win over League One bound Bolton sandwiched in between. It’s the kind of lapse in form that has plagued Birmingham’s since late in last October when they began to slip out of the play-off bracket.

The Brummie side also lack the kind of firepower Hull have upfront, relying on the steady trio of Clayton Donaldson (with 7 goals and a Super Mega PGM of 17-21), Arsenal loanee Jon-Miquel Toral and Jacques Maghoma (both at a Super Mega PGM of 6-9) to compensate for what they lack in star quality.

With the best goal difference in the Championship, and 1st place in their sights, our Spreadex traders fancy a fairly routine win for the Tigers, offering a Hull/Birmingham (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.35-0.55 with a Total Goals spread of 2.05-2.25.

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