With Liverpool managing a slender lead over Stoke in their League Cup semi-final 1st leg,

With someone as in form as Romela Lukaku (who, on 15 league goals, and 18 in total, goes into Wednesday evening at a Super Mega PGM spread of 35-41) up front Everton should be pushing for a place in the top 4, not languishing in the bottom half of the table. Yet they find themselves in 11th place on 27 points, the blame falling on a defence that, with 29 league goals conceded, has the worst record of any team that isn’t hovering around the relegation zone. Winning only 6 Premier League games this season, Everton’s main problem of late is their inability to hold onto a lead. In their past 7 league games the Toffees have picked up a measly 7 points (4 draws, 2 losses and a win) despite scoring first in 4 of those games and taking the lead in another 2 (Lukaku’s late goal against Crystal Palace the only anomaly).



The same problems have persisted throughout much of the Toffees’ League Cup run. Their 2nd round match against Barnsley may have ended 5-3, but that was after falling behind twice AND going to extra time. Their 3rd round match also saw Everton recover form going a goal down in the first half against Reading, whilst their 4th round fixture against Norwich (their only Premier League opponent until now) saw Roberto Martinez’s side throw away Sebastien Bassong’s opening goal, leading to penalties. Only in their quarter-final visit to Middlesbrough did Everton manage something approaching a convincing win, beating Boro 2-0 thanks to Gerard Deulofeu and, of course, Lukaku.

Not that Manchester City aren’t without their problems. Whilst, in 3rd, they are only 3 points off of league leaders Arsenal, City have a worrying inconsistency about them at the moment. They managed to deal with the holiday period fairly well, a loss at Arsenal followed by an emphatic 4-1 win over Sunderland (not much of an achievement), a 0-0 draw at Leicester (nothing to be sniffed at) and a 2-1 comeback against Watford (who have only just entered a bit of a slump). Yet since the middle of October they have been unable to win 2 league games in a row, their past 12 games reading as such: WDWDLWLWLWDW.

In contrast City have been at their best in the League Cup. In their 3 games they have scored 14 goals whilst only conceding 3, their romping victories over Sunderland (again), Crystal Palace and Hull leaving them as 11/10 (compared to Everton’s 6/1) fixed odds favourites to lift the trophy. Pellegrini will also have the added bonus of a fit(ish) Sergio Aguero on Wednesday evening; the South American supremo is joint top scorer with new-boy Kevin De Bruyne on 10 goals, but with a Super Mega PGM of 45-52 to the Belgian’s 18-22.

Give both side’s propensity for scoring goals (and Everton’s capacity to concede) Spreadex are offering a rather healthy Total Goals spread of 2.95-3.15. And whilst their week-to-week performances in the league may leave something to be desired, City’s League Cup dominance, and the Toffees’ failings at the back, has led to a Man City/Everton (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.33-0.55.