With the majority of spaces in the knockout stage decided, to avoid a tough draw in the next round of the Women’s World Cup at 9pm on BBC Three.

The complexities of the Women’s World Cup knockout system and the tightness of England’s Group F means there are a few different permutations that could occur after the final group games later tonight. The winner of the group will face Costa Rica, Spain or South Korea, dependant on the outcome of the final Group E games, and will certainly have the easiest draw. Second place will definitely play Norway, winners of the 1995 World Cup, who themselves came second to world no. 1’s Germany on goal difference.

Finally, third place, if they have enough points to be ranked in the top 4 of the third place sides, will either face the very tough draw of the United States , or the similarly tough proposition of 2011 champions Japan, who, bar potentially Brazil, are the only side to win all 3 group games. This again is dependent on the outcome of tonight’s games in both Group E and F.



England are currently sitting in second, one point behind Colombia and ahead of France on goal difference. England lost to France in their first game after a 29th minute goal from France’s 4th top scorer of all time, Eugenie Le Sommer. However, a busy final 20 minutes against Mexico in their second game saw goals from Fran Kirby and Karen Carney hold off an injury time strike from Fabiola Ibarra, and England’s first 3 points of the tournament.

A win is vital for England; it is the only way to finish top of the group, something that could be in jeopardy anyway if France beat Mexico by a significant margin. A draw would leave them on 4 points, and guaranteed a 3rd place qualification, whilst a loss would put them at the mercy of the France/Mexico result. This has left England at a spread of 14.5-15, where the winner of the group gets 25 points, 2nd place gets 10, 3rd place gets 5 and bottom place gets nothing, alongside 6/4 fixed odds to top the group.

Their opponents Colombia have been one of the biggest surprises of the competition so far. A 1-1 draw against Mexico in their first game, with a late goal by Daniela Montoya securing a point, failed to dispel the memories of the 2011 World Cup where Colombia only managed a solitary point, and a solitary goal, in the group stages following their draw against North Korea of all teams. Yet a strong performance against France (ranked 3rd in the world to Colombia’s 28th), which saw Colombia keep a clean sheet and a goal apiece for Lady Andrade and Catalina Usme, showed their quality and guarantees them a place in the next round. This leaves them at a Group E Index spread of 10-10.5 and at 3/1 to finish in 1st.



Who they face, of course, relies on a few different outcomes, the clearest of which is a win. This would leave Colombia on 7 points, unchallenged by France, and against the runner-up of Group E (with Spain at a Group E Index spread of 6.25-6.75, Costa Rica at 5.25-5.75 and South Korea at 2.75-3.25). A draw would guarantee them 2nd place and potentially 1st if France (Group F Index of 14.25-14.75) draw or lose against Mexico (Group E Index of 0.25-0.75); whilst a loss would leave them, like England, dependent on the result from that Franco-Mexicana meet-up.

Despite Colombia’s impressive victory over France, England looked a better side against Mexico and will be coming into this final game desperate to avoid a tough draw against Norway, the USA or Japan. This has left the Three Lionesses at an England/Colombia Goal Supremacy quote of 1-1.2 with a Total Goals spread of 2.3-2.5.