Can Manchester United axe Ajax and pick up the one piece of silverware missing from their trophy cabinet in Wednesday evening’s Stockholm-set Europa League final?

So, it all boils down to this. Jose Mourinho effectively abandoned the Premier League before the end of April – United picked up 1 win in their final 6 games and ended up finishing in 6th – to focus on Europe’s second most prestigious prize. Yet the Manchester club aren’t necessarily in it for the glory of winning the Europa League, but rather the Champions League ticket that comes with the UEFA Cup.



At the start of the season the competition was clearly an unwelcome Thursday night burden for Mourinho. United lost their opening group game to (now Eredivisie champions) Feyenoord, and barely managed to beat Zorya Luhansk in their second. A 4-1 hammering of Fenerbahce at home then led to a dismal 2-1 defeat in Turkey, only for the realisation that they could well suffer a rather ignoble exit saw them breeze past their Dutch and Ukrianian group mates in the final 2 fixtures.

In the knockouts it initially looked like United had found their footing, a rampant Zlatan Ibrahimovic helping smash Saint Etienne 4-0 on aggregate. However, in each successive round they almost stumbled, first scraping a 2-1 win over Rostov, then being pushed to extra time against Anderlecht, before finally surviving a last-minute panic against Celta Vigo in the semis.

Not that Ajax have had an easy journey to the Friends Arena. After a shock loss to Rostov in their Champions League play-off, the Amsterdam club found themselves facing Celta Vigo, Standard Liege and Panathinaikos in the UEL group stages. Ajax finished comfortably in 1st place, to set up a last 32 tie against Legia Warsaw. Peter Bosz and co. narrowly beat the Polish side 1-0 on aggregate, and then knocked out Copenhagen following a 2-0 round-rescuing win at home.

Ajax were almost pushed to penalties in the quarter-finals against Schalke, only for a 120th minute strike from Amin Younes to send them to the semis. There they took on Lyon, where a heavy 4-1 victory in the Netherlands was almost undone by a 3-1 loss in France. That latter result points to Ajax’s worrying weakness when not on home ground; they won just once on their Europa League travels, and lost every away leg of the knockouts.

They do, however, have something United lack – a free-scoring forward (or 2). Denmark’s Kasper Dolberg has 22 goals in all competitions, and heads to the final with a Super Mega PGM of 19-23; not too far behind is Davy Klaassen, whose 16 goals leaves him with a spread of 8-11. As for Mourinho, with Zlatan out his best option is Marcus Rashford, with 11 goals and a Super Mega PGM of 27-32, or Henrikh Mkhitaryan, the club’s top scorer in Europe, at 17-21.

Due to recent events tonight’s trip to Stockholm carries extra weight for Manchester United. Yet they should prevail, with Spreadex offering a Man United/Ajax Goal Supremacy spread of 0.4-0.6 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.35-2.55.