Will England U21 reach their first European Championship final since 2009 by beating Germany on Tuesday?

Aidy Boothroyd’s boys gradually improved as the group stages went on. A limp goalless draw against defending champions Sweden – who are now out after mustering just 2 points from their 3 games – and a relatively unconvincing, if hard fought, victory over Slovakia left England with a sort-of must win final game against Poland.



The hosts couldn’t muster much of anything last Thursday, eventually succumbing to a 3-0 loss following goals from Demarai Gray, Jacob Murphy and Lewis Baker, the latter scoring an 82nd minute penalty after a second yellow for Polish defender Jan Bednarek. That meant England topped Group A with 7 points, behind only Spain’s unbeaten 9 points in Group B – unsurprisingly the Spaniards are favourite for the competition as a whole, with an Outright Index spread of 63-66 alongside a fixed odds price of 6/5.

Not that winning the group has been much benefit to England in terms of who they’ve drawn in the knockouts, though in a tournament that goes straight to the semis a soft route arguably doesn’t exist. Germany – who are at an Outright Index spread of 51-54 to England’s 43-46 – had an easy breezy time of it in their first 2 games, beating the Czech Republic 2-0 before a 2nd half goal glut gave them a 3-0 win over Denmark.

Yet they came unstuck in their group-closer, unable to overcome a first half strike from Italy’s Federico Bernadeschi. With both teams on 6 points – Italy had lost 3-1 to the Czechs – the Italians took 1st place thanks to their head-to-head record, meaning Germany only narrowly scraped through as the best-ranked 2nd place side, and even that was only on goal difference.

Nevertheless it seems like they still have the edge over the Young Lions, with Spreadex offering a Germany U21/England U21 Goal Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.25 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.45-2.65. If Boothroyd’s front line can improve, however – the likes of Tammy Abraham and Cauley Woodrow, at Super Mega PGMs of 21-26 and 16-20 respectively, are yet to score – England may still stand a chance.