One of the few remaining pieces of footballing silverware will be handed out tonight, as in the Europa League final at 7.45pm on ITV4.

One could argue that Dnipro are lucky to have reached the Europa League final, especially after a disrupted Ukrainian season saw them come in 3rd place, 12 points off champions Dynamo Kiev. They finished second in their group by a single point, narrowly knocking out Azerbaijan’s Qarabag in the process; and whilst they didn’t have much trouble against Olympiacos in the round of 32, things were a lot tighter from that point onwards, with FC Dnipro Dnirpopetrovsk (to give them their full name) hanging on by the skin of their teeth.



They scraped through in the last 16 on away goals after an extra time strike in Amsterdam against Ajax, whilst only managing a 1-0 victory over Club Brugge in the two legs courtesy of an 82nd minute second leg goal in Kiev before securing a narrow 2-1 win over Napoli in the semis to reach the final in Warsaw. This has left Dnipro on a spread of 79-82, where the winner is awarded 100 points and the runner up receives 75.

Sevilla, on the other hand, have been this season’s Europa League stars. After narrowly missing out on the top spot in their group, with their 11 points not outshining Feyenoord’s 12, Sevilla came alive in the knockout stages. They won 4-2 over Borussia Monchengladback in the round of 32, impressively scoring 3 goals in their away leg, before beating Spanish rivals Villareal 5-2 over the two legs in the last 16. The goals didn’t stop coming in the quarter final as Sevilla held off Zenit St Petersburg 4-3 before putting in perhaps their best knockout performance in the semi-finals, keeping a clean sheet both home and away to see off Fiorentina 5-0.



In the last 11 years Spanish teams have won the UEFA Cup/Europa League 6 times, 3 of which have been by Sevilla themselves. There are similar stats in the Champions League, where Spanish teams (i.e. Barcelona and Real Madrid) have won the premier European club competition 4 times in 10 seasons, and 7 in the last 17. Sevilla could repeat their back to back Europa League wins of 05/06 and 06/07 tonight after beating Benfica on penalties in Turin to claim last season’s crown. They can also gain a spot in the Champions League after they missed out on that honour by coming 5th in La Liga, one point behind Valencia. Their form, their nationality and their knowledge of how to win a European title has left Sevilla at a Europa League Index spread of 93-96.

Carlos Bacca has been Sevilla’s top scorer both domestically and in Europe, with 20 goals in La Liga complimented by 5 goals in the Europa League. He is favourite to score first at 3/1 and has as Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread of 45-52. For Dnipro, Nikola Kalinic, on 12 league goals and 4 in Europe, is at 7/1 to score first, whilst Yevhen Seleznyov, on 8 league goals and 2 in Europe, is at 13/2; both have a Super Mega PGM of 19-23.



There is a clear underdog going into this final; Dnipro have largely defied the odds to get to Warsaw, knocking out sides with serious European clout like Ajax and Napoli. Yet they are coming up against the most successful Europa League side of the past decade. Unsurprisingly this has given the Spanish side the backing of our traders and clients alike at a Sevilla/Dnipro Goal Supremacy quote of 0.75-0.95. And despite Sevilla’s impressive goal-scoring record in Europe this season, Dnipro’s stinginess has led to a low Total Goals spread of 2.25-2.45.