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Will the Three Lions beat the Germans?

England v Germany, 5pm BBC 1

One of the most famous rivalries in the history of the England national team resumes this afternoon, with the Three Lions facing their nemesis at Wembley with the weight of history surely somewhere on their minds, not least for manager Gareth Southgate, who missed the crucial penalty in the EURO 1996 semi-finals – which of course took place at Wembley as well.

For this young generation of English players, history might not play too much of a factor, but the pressure will certainly be on to make use of home advantage and book a place in the quarterfinals. With the Three Lions yet to concede a goal in this tournament and preparing to face a German side who have certainly looked shaky and could well have exited in the group-stage, there may never be a better chance than appears to be the case for this England side, especially with a very favourable draw appearing to be on offer.

If England do manage to get through, they will face a very winnable (at least on paper) quarter-final against Sweden or Ukraine, and a semi-final against Denmark or the Czech Republic – who they of course already beat in the group stages. On the other side of the draw, the shock exit of tournament favourites France has also raised the hopes of English fans that this may well be the year that football may be ‘coming home’.

In a surprising stat, England have lost their last four Euros knockout matches despite netting an opener inside five minutes in three of them. Three of these defeats came via a penalty shootout. What are the odds of England to score an early goal again? We have First England Goal at 52-55 on the spreads, while if you fancy the Three Lions to break their penalties curse (against Germany), we have England to win on Penalties at 3.8-10.6 on our binary spread markets.

In terms of goalscorers, Raheem Sterling has been the England MVP thus far, scoring crucial winners against both Croatia and the Czech Republic. Can he get his third goal of the competition here? We have Raheem Sterling SMMs at 18-22 on the spreads. If you fancy Harry Kane to finally find his shooting boots here and get his tournament tally off the mark, we have Kane PGMs at 23-26. For Germany, we have Kai Havertz at a PGM spread of 9-12, with the Chelsea man looking to add to his tally of two goals so far in the tournament.
In terms of the match odds, Spreadex envisage a tightly contested match, with an England/Germany Goal Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.25 on the spreads, along with Total Goals at 2.4-2.6, and Total Goal Minutes at 123-133. On the fixed odds, England are at 29/20 to win in 90 minutes and 8/11 to qualify, with Germany at 21/10 to get the job done in 90mins, and 11/10 to qualify. The Draw is available at 12/5, if there is to be another nail-biting extra time scenario for these sides.

Sweden v Ukraine, 8pm BBC 1

In the final Round of 16 match, surprise packages Sweden face an unpredictable Ukraine side which barely squeezed through as the last of the qualifying 3rd placed teams. The Swedes performed admirably in the group stages, winning their section ahead of Spain, and finishing with 2 wins against Slovakia and Poland, and a draw with the Spanish. In a strange twist of fate, it was Sweden who in fact secured Ukraine’s place in this round, and Andriy Shevchenko’s side will now look to bite the hand that fed them.

After an exciting but ultimately disappointing opening 3-2 defeat to the Netherlands, Ukraine followed up by an up and down performance and 2-1 victory against North Macedonia, and an abject showing against Austria to lose 1-0 in the final group stage. Ultimately, circumstances may have worked out better for the Ukrainians, now facing an easier-looking tie, and a potentially weaker side of the draw. They will now look to make the most of their second chance and emulate their best-ever major tournament performance, when they reached the 2006 World Cup quarterfinals before going out to eventual champions Italy.

Sweden will also be looking at this as an extremely winnable tie, and a reward for their exertions in topping their group ahead of Spain. With a solid defence, plenty of experience, and dangerous attacking talents in Alexander Isak, Dejan Kulusevski and Emil Forsberg, they will be fully confident of grabbing a victory and evening up the H2H between these sides, which currently stands at 2 wins for Ukraine, 1 for Sweden, and 1 draw.

This matchup holds a special place in Ukraine manager Andriy Shevchenko’s heart, with the former Milan striker scoring both goals in the EURO 2012 group-stage meeting between these two, in which Ukraine won 2-1 in their EURO debut on home soil. The odds on that scoreline repeating itself tonight is available at 9/1 on the fixed odds.

In terms of the match odds, Spreadex are offering a Sweden/Ukraine Goal Supremacy spread of 0.1-0.3, along with Total Goals at 2.25-2.45 and Total Goal Mins at 115-125. Sweden are at 7/5 to win and 8/11 to qualify on the fixed odds, while Ukraine are at 9/4 to win and 11/10 to qualify, with the Draw also at 9/4.

Monday Winners

After an incredible day of action on Monday, it was Spain who finally overcame Croatia 5-3 after Extra Time, while tournament favourites France crashed out on penalties to Switzerland after the match also finished 3-3 after the initial 90 minutes. Here are some of the top market make-ups in which you could have made huge profit!

Croatia v Spain: Total Goal Minutes – settled at 367
In a six-goal thriller in the 90-minute period, including 3 goals between the 77th and 90th minutes, the match TGMs ended on a huge makeup of 367, from a pre-match spread of 120-130. That means you could have made 237 times your opening wager if you chose to buy!

Croatia v Spain: Total Headed Goal Minutes – settled at 147
Not only was the match characterised by the amount of goals, but also by the amount of headed goals, with Spain’s Azpilicueta and Croatia’s Pasalic both nodding in. That led to a makeup of 147 from a pre-match spread of just 22-25, meaning buying could have made you 122 times your stake.

France v Switzerland: Benzema SMMs – settled at 175
Enjoying a great tournament on his return to the international fold, it may have ended in tears for Karim Benzema, but he did his bit and scored a fantastic quick-fire second half double against the Swiss. With a Super Mega Minutes make-up of 175 from a pre-match spread of 36-42, those who backed Benzema and bought would have made a cool 133 times their opening stake.

France v Switzerland: Headed SMMs – settled at 376
Not to be outdone by the drama of the day’s earlier game, there was even more action and headed goals than between Spain and Croatia, with a huge Headed SMMs makeup of 376, from a spread of 32-38. Those who bought would have made a mind-boggling 338 times their opening wager!


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