England welcome New Zealand to Lord’s on Thursday for the first Test in a two Test series.

After all the speculation and controversy regarding Kevin Pietersen and his possible return to the England setup it’s back to business on the field for Alastair Cook and his men. The challenge facing them could scarcely be tougher; New Zealand cricket is flourishing, with the national team performing well across all formats. Our traders make England small favourites on the 25:10 at 12.5-14, with the Black Caps priced at 9.5-11. The draw is currently priced at 28.5-33.4 on the binary (2/1 fixed odds), which with a mixed forecast for the duration of the Test is certainly worth considering.

With new ECB ‘Head Boy’ Andrew Strauss declaring that Pietersen will not be welcomed back into the England setup the pressure is really on England’s batsmen to score heavily. It will not be easy for them against a strong New Zealand attack, particularly knowing that any failure will only lead to an increase in the clamour for KP’s return. As captain, no player is under more pressure than Cook. Cook, reported as being the main protagonist behind the blocking of any return for Pietersen, will need to build on his return to form in the Caribbean to secure his place as captain ahead of this summer’s Ashes. Our traders are not too optimistic about his prospects for this Test, quoting his runs at 76-83. He can be backed at 9/2 to top score for England in their first innings, and those that fancy Cook to notch his 27th Test Century may be interested in his ton-ups quote of 10-13.

One man who has looked calm under pressure in his England career so far is Yorkshireman Joe Root. Announced as the new vice-captain by Strauss last week, the youngster has shown maturity beyond his years and his form with the bat has been a rare positive for English cricket. Root is chalked up as 7/2 favourite to top score for England in their first innings and his runs quote for the match is 78-85 (ton-ups 11-14). Batting at number 5, Root may be spared the inevitable opening barrage from Tim Southee and Trent Boult, New Zealand’s lethal opening bowlers. Root’s off-spin has also been useful for England of late, and will be worth considering in relation to his Match Player Performance quote of 98-106.

For New Zealand much will rest on number 3 batsman Kane Williamson. As one of the younger players in the New Zealand line-up, Williamson has established himself as a world class Test batsman, and it’s no surprise to see him the 3/1 favourite to top score for the Black Caps in their first innings. His match runs are quoted at 83-90, and England will be desperate to get him in early to have a crack at him with the new ball. Having been mostly an unused squad player at the IPL, Williamson will no doubt be raring to get back amongst the runs, and his ton-ups quote of 13-16 may well be of interest.

In contrast to English captain Cook, Kiwi skipper Brendan McCullum is riding the crest of a wave. His leadership has been a key factor in New Zealand’s rise up the rankings in all formats, and he will be coming into this series brimming with confidence. His match runs are quoted at 77-84 and he is 7/2 to top score in New Zealand’s first innings. For those who fancy McCullum to go big in this Test match his ton-ups are quoted at 11-14.

In many ways the battle of the bowling attacks is the most interesting aspect of this series. New Zealand’s attack, led by Southee and Boult, should be ideally suited to English conditions, particularly at this early stage of the season. With Southee’s Bowler Performance quoted at 45-50 and Boult’s at 48-53, it’s clear our traders expect those two to do most of the damage. There are plenty of options in terms of support bowlers, with Matt Henry pressing for a place ahead of Neil Wagner and Doug Bracewell. England’s attack will be led by the effervescent James Anderson, and our traders expect another strong showing from England’s leading wicket-taker of all-time, pitching his bowler performance at 51-56. The Lancashire swinger should also be suited to the mixed forecast, with gloomy overhead conditions aiding his immaculate control of the new ball.

Our traders have pitched England over New Zealand 10-30 on the first innings supremacy market, believing England just have the edge. With a typically flat pitch in prospect at Lord’s, match ton-ups are quoted at 89-96, with England’s ton-ups slightly higher (47-52) than New Zealand’s (41-46). These markets are a good reflection on just how even this contest looks like being. In addition to the usual range of markets, our traders have come up with some specials on the action. “Stop at Jimmy’s 400” is one such market, which settles at the number of balls bowled by James Anderson before he takes his 3rd wicket of the match (his 400th Test match wicket). This is pitched at 160-175. Big-hitting Martin Guptill is the focus of ‘Martin Scores Crazy’, a Scorcese film-based special. Component parts include ‘The Aviator’ (25pts per Guptill 6) and ‘Goodfellas’ (50pts per 50 partnership involving Guptill), with the market quote 130-145. After his stunning performances in the World Cup it will certainly be interesting to see how Guptill fairs on his return to the Test arena.